Senior Expert – Demonstrating the impacts of comprehensive social protection on economic growth: SAM and CGE model-based analysis

Position: Senior Expert
Reporting to: Team Leader (TL) and Project Manager (PM)
Location: Home/Amman

Assignment background information

The Shamil technical assistance facility is a core component of the United Kingdom’s £95 million, 5-year programme: Strengthening Societal and Economic Resilience in Jordan (SSERJ). The goal of the SSERJ programme is to support the Government of Jordan in building an inclusive and sustainable social protection system, protecting people from shocks, and based on a strengthened social contract.

Shamil is a four-year project, beginning in June 2023 and expected to finish in May 2027. Shamil aims to help transform Jordan’s social protection landscape, supporting the government to build a more prosperous and just society with a national social protection system that strengthens the national social contract and ensures access to social security for everyone, across the lifecycle. The project will promote greater gender equality, women’s empowerment, and the inclusion of persons with disabilities and other at-risk groups within the national social protection system and more broadly across society.

Shamil adopts a flexible, demand-driven and partner-led approach to supporting social protection system strengthening by working closely with key stakeholders in Jordan’s social protection space, including government, non-government and development partners. Shamil will work with key government partners to identify needs and priorities for strengthening the system and working together to address those. Shamil has identified three key areas of activity, with outcomes for 1) promotion of an inclusive, lifecycle social protection system; 2) professionalisation of social work; and 3) enhanced labour market outcomes, particularly for persons with disabilities and women.

Shamil’s aim is to help Jordan build a multi-tiered, comprehensive social protection system that offers everyone support across the lifecycle, leaving no one behind and delivering a stronger social contract, greater prosperity and a more resilient, stable and equal society.

The Government of Jordan has requested Shamil to investigate the economic impacts of investing in comprehensive social protection. In the situation of very stringent fiscal policy, it is important that a positive case is made for investing in an expanded social protection system, based on strong evidence and politically attractive policy options. The analysis should examine two areas:

  • Simulating the impacts of expanded social protection programmes on gross domestic output, GDP, household consumption and employment to provide evidence on the value of investing in social protection, comparing with investments in other areas
  • Assessing the generation of additional tax revenue through the growth impacts of social protection.

Shamil has already begun work on a CGE analysis, including updating Jordan’s SAM from 2016 to 2019 using the latest I-O tables. An option to update the SAM to 2021 was considered using national accounts data (there are no I-O tables for 2021), however, a decision was made to update to 2019 to avoid changes to linkages in 2021 due to COVID-19 impacts on the economy. A preliminary CGE model has also been developed. The current assignment should build off of this work.

Purpose

The purpose of this assignment is to demonstrate the impacts of comprehensive social protection on economic growth using SAM and CGE model-based analysis.

Indicative activities

  • Review work already undertaken on the SAM and CGE and prepare an inception report outlining how the consultant will complete the CGE analysis
  • Undertake additional updates and modifications as needed to the SAM
  • Hold focused discussions of simulations, methodology and results with the project team and the technical working team
  • Develop the CGE model
  • Write up a report setting out the results from the analysis
  • Present the results of the analysis in a workshop in Jordan

Deliverables

  1. Inception report
  2. Modified SAM
  3. CGE model
  4. PowerPoint presentation and draft report
  5. Final report

Inputs

30 days (indicative, actual days to be updated after submission of inception report)

Deliverable & Activity Timelines

Deliverable Estimated due date
1. Inception report 19 December 2024
(6 days – including a 3-day mission in December)
2. SAM update 31 January 2025
(3 days)
3. CGE model development, calibration, running simulation and analysis 01 March 2024
(10 days)
4. Draft report and virtual presentation (PowerPoint slides) 15 March 2024
(8 days)
5. Final report 25 March 2024
(3 days)

Deliverables must be submitted to the Team Leader, with the Project Manager in copy.

How to apply

Interested candidates should submit the following:

  1. A detailed CV
  2. A cover letter outlining their qualifications and relevant experience

Please send your application materials to hkirley@developmentpathways.co.uk by EOD 15 November 2024. 

Development Pathways is an equal opportunity employer and encourages applications from qualified candidates regardless of gender, race, disability, or other protected characteristics.

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