Universal social security is feasible in low-income countries: a critical review of the ILO’s calculations on the cost of bridging the gap

In this new Pathways’ Perspectives piece, Stephen Kidd (Principal Social Security Specialist), Diloá Athias (Senior Economist) and Olivia Claxton (Social Protection Officer) examine the ILO’s claim that universal social security would cost low-income countries 19.8 per cent of GDP. Their research reveals this figure is significantly inflated due to methodological challenges.

Using more realistic transfer values, the authors demonstrate that universal social security could cost less than 4 per cent of GDP in low-income countries if implemented immediately and much less if undertaken gradually.