Social Protection Fiscal Space and Funding Gap Analysis in Botswana

In 2023, Development Pathways supported UNICEF and the government of Botswana in conducting a fiscal space and funding gap analysis of social protection in Botswana.

The funding gap analysis projects that costs will increase from BWP 3.5 billion (USD 258 million) in 2023 to BWP 4.3 billion (USD 321 million) by 2027. However, a reformed system could potentially cost 4 per cent less than the current programmes, although expansion scenarios project additional costs of 36-85%. Recommendations to address these challenges and ensure long-term sustainability include streamlining and consolidating existing programmes, developing integrated management information systems, regularly reviewing and adjusting benefit levels, and conducting comprehensive impact evaluations. While implementing the National Social Protection Framework is possible with a neutral fiscal impact, it will require careful management and strategic reforms. Additionally, the study found that exploring both revenue and expenditure measures to increase fiscal space will be crucial for the system’s future effectiveness.